Risk as a pattern over time: Delineation of time-dependent risk factors in biological,psychological, and social variables in cancer patients

Background

Survival in cancer patients is associated with a multitude of biological, social, and psychological factors. Although it is well established that all these factors add to overall mortality, it is not well understood how the predictive power of these parameters changes in a comprehensive model and over time.

Methods

Patients who attended the authors’ outpatient clinic were invited to participate. The authors followed 5180 mixed cancer patients (51.1% female; mean age, 59.1 years [SD = 13.8]) for up to 16 years and analyzed biological (age, sex, cancer site, anemia), psychological (anxiety, depression), and social variables (marital status, education, employment status) potentially predicting overall survival in a Cox proportional hazards model.

Results

The median survival time for the entire sample was 4.3 years (95% confidence interval, 4.0–4.7). The overall survival probabilities for 1 and 10 years were 76.8% and 38.0%, respectively. Following an empirical approach, the authors split the time interval into five periods: acute, subacute, short-term, medium-term, and long-term. A complex pattern of variables predicted overall survival differently in the five periods. Biological parameters were important throughout most of the time, social parameters were either time-independent predictors or tended to be more important in the longer term. Of the psychological parameters, only depression was a significant predictor and lost its predictive power in the long-term.

Conclusions

The findings of this study allow the development of comprehensive patient-specific models of risk and resilience factors addressing biopsychosocial needs of cancer patients, paving the way for a personalized treatment plan that goes beyond biomedical cancer care.     

治伤巴布剂对大鼠急性软组织损伤模型P38MAPK、AKT信号通路的影响＊

目的 观察治伤巴布剂对急性软组织损伤（acute soft tissue injury， ASTI）模型p38丝裂原活化蛋白激酶（mitogen-activated protein kinase，MAPK）、丝/苏氨酸蛋白激酶（AKT）信号通路的影响，探讨治伤巴布剂干预ASTI的可能作用机制。方法 将40只雄性SD大鼠按照随机数字表法分为正常对照组、模型对照组、治伤巴布剂组、p38MAPK信号通路抑制剂组、AKT信号通路抑制剂组，每组8只。除正常对照组外，其余四组均予以左侧后肢小腿ASTI造模。造模成功后，治伤巴布剂组于标记部位立即予治伤巴布剂（修剪成1.5x3cm大小）外敷，并用胶布固定；其余四组均予等剂量赋形剂（修剪成1.5×3 cm大小）外敷处理，胶布固定；持续外敷，共持续24 h。p38MAPK信号通路抑制剂组在造模前30 min予腹腔注射p38MAPK信号通路抑制剂SB203580（400 μg/kg/天）1次；AKT信号通路抑制剂组在造模前30 min予腹腔注射AKT信号通路抑制剂perifosine（20 mg/kg/天）1次。分别于0（造模前）、2h、4h、8h、12h、24h测量受伤小腿肌肉处的周长，并计算肌肉肿胀率（muscle swelling rate，MSR）。24 h药物干预结束后，采用颈椎脱臼法处死大鼠。后将左侧后肢小腿损伤中心部位进行取材，分成三份。一部分用于观察组织病理学形态变化；一部分用于逆转录聚合酶链反应（RT-PCR）检测核因子-κB（nuclear factor kappa-B，NF-κB）p65 mRNA、肿瘤坏死因子-α（TNF-α）mRNA、白细胞介素-1β（IL-1β）mRNA表达水平；剩下部分用酶联免疫吸附试验（ELISA）法检测骨骼肌组织TNF-α、IL-1β含量水平及蛋白质免疫印迹（Western-blot）法测定p38MAPK、AKT、NF-κB p65、核因子抑制蛋白α（inhibitor kappa B alpha， IκBα）表达水平。结果 与正常对照组相比，模型对照组MSR显著增加（P<0.01）；病理形态学上，骨骼肌组织可见大面积肌细胞排列紊乱，肌细胞变性坏死，间质内可见红细胞聚集及大量炎症细胞浸润；骨骼肌组织TNF-α、IL-1β含量水平显著升高（P<0.01）；磷酸化p38MAPK（p-p38）/总p38MAPK（t-p38），磷酸化-AKT（p-AKT）/总-AKT（t-AKT）明显升高（P<0.01），NF-κB p65及NF-κB p65mRNA表达水平明显升高（P<0.01）。与模型对照组相比，治伤巴布剂组MSR在治疗第8 h、12 h、24 h显著下降（P<0.01），且在治疗第24 h，其MSR较p38MAPK、AKT信号通路抑制剂组下降更明显（P<0.05）；病理学评分显著下降（P<0.01），且较p38MAPK、AKT信号通路抑制剂组下降更显著（P<0.05）；骨骼肌组织TNF-α、IL-1β含量水平明显下降（P<0.01），且较p38MAPK、AKT信号通路抑制剂组更显著（P<0.05）；p-p38/t-p38及p-AKT/t-AKT明显下降（P<0.01），NF-κB p65及NF-κB p65 mRNA表达水平显著下降（P<0.01），且较p38MAPK、AKT信号通路抑制剂组在降低NF-κB p65及NF-κB p65 mRNA相对表达值方面更显著（P<0.01）。结论 治伤巴布剂可能同时对p38MAPK、AKT信号通路产生了一定的抑制作用，引起NF-κB活性下调，NF-κB p65蛋白的表达下调，进而引起骨骼肌组织TNF-α、IL-1β炎性细胞因子含量水平下调，减轻ASTI炎症反应，从而改善ASTI。     

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